Parallels between Gaza in 2005 and Afghanistan in 2021
Power vacuums tend to be filled quickly by Jihadis
On August 15, 2021, the 16th anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, I was going to write a short post reflecting on this watershed moment in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while also announcing where to find a new link for the feature documentary I made about the event. But then I turned on the news from Afghanistan and was mesmerized watching history unfold before my eyes. I was struck by some of the parallels to Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza exactly 16 years earlier to the day.
Many observers noted the obvious parallels to the American departure from Vietnam, particularly the frantic evacuations from Kabul airport which mirrored the Fall of Saigon.
I don’t think anyone has mentioned some of the parallels between Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in August, 2005, which is in some ways, may end up being more of a lesson for the United States in terms of what will come next in Afghanistan.
Visually, many of the scenes of jubilant Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters Gaza in 2005 looked a lot like August 15, 2021 in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan and Gaza are in different world regions with a very unique set of geopolitical forces shaping them. The Gaza Strip is tiny, flat, relatively homogenous compared to the enormous, mountainous, multi-ethnic Afghanistan. However, there are some parallels worth exploring between the way Israel and the U.S. withdrew from these lands, and particularly the groups who filled the vacuum. Here we go:
Just like the U.S. in Afghanistan, Israel was losing treasure and lives securing Gaza settlements from constant Hamas attacks. (The obvious difference is that Israel is next door to Gaza, whereas the U.S. is thousands of miles from Afghanistan)
Israel decided to withdraw after 38 years occupying the territory. The US did so in Afghanistan after 20 years.
These were both unilateral withdrawals. While the U.S. did have an agreement with the Taliban, this was not a land-for-peace deal with a sovereign nation. Historically, these are the only types of withdrawals that have ever led to lasting peace (ie. Israel withdrawing from the Sinai peninsula in to Egypt in exchange for peace).
Both Israel and the U.S. knew that the corrupt bureaucrats and unmotivated security forces they trained and installed would not be able to defend the territory for long after withdrawal.
More specifically, both the U.S. and Israel knew these lands would fall into the hands of their Jihadi enemies. The only question decision makers wondered was how long it would take. (It appears the U.S. was caught by surprise at how quickly the Taliban managed to take over so much of Afghanistan. Israel was less surprised when Hamas took complete control over Gaza in 2007).
The final parallels remain to be seen.
If Afghanistan follows Gaza, what will come next will be a particularly brutal and gruesome battle for total control of the reins of government and the economy. I sincerely hope the Taliban will be open to some kind of a power sharing agreement, but I am skeptical.
Hamas waited patiently and politely for Israel to close the gates on Gaza, which we see the Taliban doing now. As soon as the last Israeli soldier left, the civil war began. Hamas targeted Fatah fighters who they believed were complicit in the occupation, throwing them off of buildings or shooting their kneecaps. I produced a video about this brutal campaign for Time, which you can view here. The fighting peaked in June 2007, when more than 100 Palestinians were killed with more than 500 wounded in what became known as the “Battle for Gaza.”
Hamas won the battle and replaced the security state under Israeli/Fatah control with an Islamofascist state, under total Hamas control. They instituted an extreme version of Shariah law. Women lost many basic rights, journalists lost their freedom to speak, dissidents lost their ability to protest, homosexuals lost their ability to love freely, and religious minorities lost their ability to worship. Many liberal-minded people with means fled Gaza. Many of those who remain live in a state of fear, anxiety, and depression. Suicide rates have risen sharply. The wars with Israel continue. In each war, civilians and children pay the worst price. According to one study, 91% of children in Gaza are suffering from PTSD. There has not been a democratic election in 15 years.
What will the future be for Afghanistan under the Taliban for those who do not support Islamic fundamentalism ?
Will the U.S. be fighting the Taliban again ?
If Gaza under Hamas is any indication, the answers to the above questions are “bleak” and “yes.”
The clear lesson here is that nations with vastly more powerful armies and ample resources should not occupy lands with guerrilla forces unless they either have a clear exit plan, or the will to permanently govern it.
The U.S. should have learned this lesson in Vietnam. But we didn’t. And now we’re back at square one.
George W. Bush’s first of two ill conceived wars, escalated by Obama, abandoned by Trump, is now winding down thanks to Biden.
American partisans and pundits will undoubtedly seek to pin this catastrophe on Biden or Trump. The truth is that neither of them are responsible. This was an inherited mess, initiated by George W. Bush, made worse by Barack Obama. The war was lost the minute the U.S. decided we can nation build in a nation that looks nothing like a Western democracy.
What should the U.S. have done on September 12th, 2001 ?
Something different, clearly. First, we needed to clearly define the problem. Remember, the enemy is not a person or group, but an ideology. The majority of the Taliban fighters who just marched into Kabul were born after 2001. They are 18, 19, 20 years old. The Taliban knows how to reach, inspire and educate the youth. This is the original problem. Al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban are more effective recruiters than the U.S. army.
So what is the solution? Surgical strikes against known terrorists, mitigating collateral damage. No ground troops, no nation building. Less military force in general, and much, much more soft power. A different type of propaganda that can travel at the speed and in the language of the internet. Mobile video, memes, and social media is the more important battleground. Soft power that speaks all 40 different Afghan languages and can relate to Muslims. No support for corrupt, puppet governments or armies. More support of education, local businesses, and moderate Islamic social programs and institutions.
We should have deployed some version of these tools 20 years ago. These are also the tools we will still need moving forward, assuming the Taliban of 2021 act like the Taliban of the 1990’s, or Hamas of 2007.
Our foreign policy in Central Asia and the Middle East has largely failed, and the truth is that both parties are to blame. Our 8 year-long war in Iraq brought ISIS into the world, destabilized Iraq and Syria, and bolstered Iran. Our 20 year-long war in Afghanistan emboldened the Taliban, while empowering Russia and China. The principle lesson should be crystal clear. Military occupation is fertile ground for Islamic fundamentalism. The U.S. could have just consulted with Israel.
To see how it all went down in Gaza, here is that updated link to my film, Disengagement. It was removed last month from Amazon Prime for no apparent reason, with very short notice. I have since put the entire 90 minute film on Youtube, where you can watch it in its entirety for free.